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When will your state’s COVID-19 cases peak? Check this chart

April 2, 2020

Editor’s note: The IHME issued new data on April 6 that contains updated peak-date projections for every state. Those new estimates can be found in Leafly’s article Is your state flattening the COVID-19 curve? Here’s the latest data.

As more Americans adjust to life under stay-at-home orders, they’re also looking for answers to pressing questions: When will the worst of this hit? And how long will it last?

The IHME model predicts the COVID-19 caseload to peak right around 4/20 in most states.

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has quickly become the global go-to source for reliable modeling of the virus’ likely path. And a few days ago the IHME posted a remarkable new interactive website that predicts the apex of each state’s COVID-19 outbreak.

The site’s infovisualizations factor in a number of data points, including statewide education shutdowns, stay-at-home orders, hospital beds, and ventilators on hand. Currently, the projections expect about 93,000 deaths nationwide due to COVID-19 between now and the end of July.

Prepare for a rough mid-April

It’s a highly dynamic site, as the data in play changes daily and often hourly.

The upshot: As of April 1, the week of April 18-25 seems to be the predicted apex for COVID-19 cases in a majority of states.

Yes, that’s right. The United States is expected to face the teeth of this storm right around 4/20, the annual celebration of cannabis freedom.

No complaining—it’s time to adapt. We’ve all seen what happens when the young and the dumb decide to not let a worldwide pandemic alter their spring break party plans. If adjusting our plans for 4/20 will keep our friends, co-workers, families, and community healthier, let’s do it. (Most event organizers already have.)

Some more isolated states, like Hawaii and Idaho, will see their caseloads peak closer to May 1. The early pandemic regions, like New York and Connecticut, are looking at the crest of their wave hitting late next week, roughly April 9-13.

The site is worth checking out here. In the meantime, we’ve gathered a simplified table, below, with the IHME data as of April 1, 2020.

StateApex of
COVID-19 cases
(projected)
Total deaths
by April 1
Total deaths
by June 1
(projected)
Total deaths per
100,000 residents
(projected)
AlabamaApril 20201,13722.74
AlaskaApril 20414519.7
ArizonaApril 26301,56921.8
ArkansasApril 221272924.3
CaliforniaApril 272034,99712.8
ColoradoApril 17741,68329.5
ConnecticutApril 135041411.5
DelawareApril 18823624.4
District of ColumbiaApril 171538454.9
FloridaMay 3905,30824.9
GeorgiaApril 231192,63925.1
HawaiiMay 1135124.7
IdahoMay 1844225.3
IllinoisApril 161152,32618.25
IndianaApril 185090613.5
IowaApril 182275923.7
KansasApril 271268423.6
KentuckyMay 141593620.8
LouisianaApril 102681,97842.4
MaineApril 25336026.9
MarylandMay 1231,67928.0
MassachusettsApril 15871,50721.8
MichiganApril 103013,00730.1
MinnesotaApril 18191,03918.6
MississippiApril 21261,22340.8
MissouriMay 18171,19319.6
MontanaApril 26525825.8
NebraskaMay 1241321.4
NevadaApril 222150616.9
New HampshireApril 21432924.3
New JerseyApril 82951,84420.7
New MexicoMay 2249323.5
New YorkApril 91,95315,78880.8
North CarolinaApril 23242,44623.6
North DakotaMay 2215820.8
OhioApril 20621,67114.3
OklahomaApril 21251,10027.5
OregonMay 62051312.2
PennsylvaniaApril 16791,57412.3
Rhode IslandApril 19625424.0
South CarolinaApril 26261,02820.2
South DakotaMay 2119121.6
TennesseeApril 26254,98473.6
TexasMay 5665,76820.1
UtahApril 24555017.4
VermontApril 7166911.0
VirginiaMay 28241,11413.1
WashingtonApril 192591,54520.5
West VirginiaMay 1146625.9
WisconsinApril 272892615.9
WyomingMay 3013423.2
Bruce Barcott's Bio Image

Bruce Barcott

Leafly Senior Editor Bruce Barcott oversees news, investigations, and feature projects. He is a Guggenheim Fellow and author of Weed the People: The Future of Legal Marijuana in America.

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