Editor’s note: The IHME issued new data on April 6 that contains updated peak-date projections for every state. Those new estimates can be found in Leafly’s article Is your state flattening the COVID-19 curve? Here’s the latest data.
As more Americans adjust to life under stay-at-home orders, they’re also looking for answers to pressing questions: When will the worst of this hit? And how long will it last?
The IHME model predicts the COVID-19 caseload to peak right around 4/20 in most states.
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has quickly become the global go-to source for reliable modeling of the virus’ likely path. And a few days ago the IHME posted a remarkable new interactive website that predicts the apex of each state’s COVID-19 outbreak.
The site’s infovisualizations factor in a number of data points, including statewide education shutdowns, stay-at-home orders, hospital beds, and ventilators on hand. Currently, the projections expect about 93,000 deaths nationwide due to COVID-19 between now and the end of July.
Prepare for a rough mid-April
It’s a highly dynamic site, as the data in play changes daily and often hourly.
The upshot: As of April 1, the week of April 18-25 seems to be the predicted apex for COVID-19 cases in a majority of states.
Yes, that’s right. The United States is expected to face the teeth of this storm right around 4/20, the annual celebration of cannabis freedom.
No complaining—it’s time to adapt. We’ve all seen what happens when the young and the dumb decide to not let a worldwide pandemic alter their spring break party plans. If adjusting our plans for 4/20 will keep our friends, co-workers, families, and community healthier, let’s do it. (Most event organizers already have.)
Some more isolated states, like Hawaii and Idaho, will see their caseloads peak closer to May 1. The early pandemic regions, like New York and Connecticut, are looking at the crest of their wave hitting late next week, roughly April 9-13.
The site is worth checking out here. In the meantime, we’ve gathered a simplified table, below, with the IHME data as of April 1, 2020.
|State||Apex of |
by April 1
|Total deaths |
by June 1
|Total deaths per
|District of Columbia||April 17||15||384||54.9|
|New Hampshire||April 21||4||329||24.3|
|New Jersey||April 8||295||1,844||20.7|
|New Mexico||May 2||2||493||23.5|
|New York||April 9||1,953||15,788||80.8|
|North Carolina||April 23||24||2,446||23.6|
|North Dakota||May 2||2||158||20.8|
|Rhode Island||April 19||6||254||24.0|
|South Carolina||April 26||26||1,028||20.2|
|South Dakota||May 2||1||191||21.6|
|West Virginia||May 1||1||466||25.9|