If 2012 was cannabis legalization’s breakthrough election, 2016 may prove to be the movement’s tipping point. When Colorado and Washington state voted to allow the adult use of cannabis in 2012, 12 million Americans gained the freedom to purchase and consume. If all five adult-use ballot measures pass in 2016, a total of 76 million people — nearly one-quarter of the U.S. population — will live in states with legal, regulated adult-use cannabis. On the medical side, Florida, Arkansas, and North Dakota would add 24 million residents to the roughly 160 million Americans already living in 25 states with legal medical cannabis.
Leafly’s political staff will continually update this page with the latest poll numbers, financial contributions, and election data. Follow our campaign features and expanded coverage at Leafly Politics.
States in Play: November 2016
Adult Use Cannabis Legalization
| State | Ballot Measure | Current Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Adult Use: Proposition 205 | Oct. 20 Arizona Republic poll has 50% favoring, 42% opposing, 8% undecided. |
| California | Adult Use: Proposition 64 | SurveyUSA poll: 52-41% in favor. USC/LA Times poll: 58-34% in favor. |
| Maine | Adult Use: Question 1 | Gov. LePage is against it, but polls say 55% of Mainers want it. |
| Massachusetts | Adult Use: Question 4 | Oct 19 WBUR poll has Q4 passing, 55 to 40%. Oct 27 Suffolk U/Boston Globe poll has it passing 49 to 42%. |
| Nevada | Adult Use: Question 2 | Latest: 57% for, 33% against legalization. But $2 mil in attack ads are about to drop. |
Medical Use Cannabis Legalization
| State | Ballot Measure | Current Status |
|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | Medical: Issue 6 and Issue 7 | Sept. 17 poll has Issue 7 passing, Issue 6 failing. |
| Florida | Medical: Amendment 2 | Late-Sept. polls have support at 69 to 73%. |
| Montana | Medical: Initiative 182 | Court-ordered dispensary closures boost MMJ support. |
| North Dakota | Medical: Measure 5 | Lack of pre-election polling makes this one tough to call. |
National Polling on Legalizing Cannabis
The Pew Research Center’s poll on legalization continues to be the best source of data on America’s rapidly changing views on cannabis. Rule of thumb: The younger the voter, the more likely they are to support adult-use legalization.
Source: Pew Research Center
State-by-State Polling
Legalization campaigns are a lot like presidential campaigns: People tend to watch the national polling figures, but what really matters are the state-by-state polls. Good piece on this recently by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, by the way — well worth reading. The Pew national poll is great for taking the nation’s overall temperature, but the legalization movement marches forward one state at a time. (Polls on state-level cannabis support aren’t taken at regular intervals, so the time-axes are a little funky.)
California: Latest Polling Results
| Poll Date | Polling Organization | Yes on Prop. 64 | No on Prop. 64 | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/14/2016 - 10/23/2016 | Public Policy Institute of California | 55 | 38 | 6 |
| 10/13/2016 - 10/15/2016 | SurveyUSA | 51 | 40 | 9 |
| 10/7/2016 - 10/13/2016 | Hoover Institution/YouGov | 56 | 34 | 10 |
| 9/9/2016 - 9/18/2016 | CALSPEAKS | 60 | 30 | 10 |
Florida: Latest Polling Results
| Date | Poll | Support % | Oppose % | Undecided % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/22/16 - 10/26/16 | St. Leo University | 71.3 | 21.6 | 7.1 |
| 10/17/2016 - 10/20/2016 | People United for Medical Marijuana | 74 | 22 | 4 |
| 9/27/2016 - 10/4/2016 | Public Opinion Research Lab | 77 | 18 | 4 |
| 9/15/16 - 9/20/16 | Florida Chamber of Commerce/Cherry Communications | 73 | 22 | 5 |
| 9/10/16 - 9/16/16 | St. Leo University | 68.8 | 32.2 | 0 |
Massachusetts: Latest Polling Results
| Poll Date | Polling Organization | Yes on Question 4 | No on Question 4 | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 27 | Suffolk U. / Boston Globe | 49 | 42 | 8 |
| Oct. 19 | WBUR | 55 | 40 | 5 |
| Late Sept. | WBZ/U. Mass | 53 | 40 | 7 |
| Mid-Sept. | WBUR | 50 | 45 | 5 |
| July 12-13 | Gravis Marketing | 41 | 51 | 9 |
State of the Leaf: This Week in Politics
Every Thursday, Leafly associate editor Lisa Rough compiles the State of the Leaf, a state-by-state update on cannabis legalization matters around the nation. This week: Alaska harvests its first legal crop with nowhere to sell it; one of two Arkansas ballot measures survives its day in court, an Illinois judge adds one more MMJ qualifying condition, and the ballot battle ends in Michigan and Oklahoma.
Follow the Money
Money doesn’t always change everything, but in politics it matters an awful lot. Here’s the latest data on contributions for and against legalization campaigns. Keep in mind that there’s often a lag of anywhere between several weeks and several months in the public disclosure of contributions due to each state’s campaign financing rules.
Arizona
PACs for Cannabis Legalization (Initiative 205)
| PAC | Amount Raised |
|---|---|
| Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol | $5,237,084 |
| Total: | $5,237,084 |
PACs Against Cannabis Legalization (Initiative 205)
| PAC | Amount Raised |
|---|---|
| Arizonans for Responsible Drug Policy | $5,605,735 |
| Just Vote No Arizona | $854 |
| Marijuana Consumers Against Fake Marijuana Legalization | $3,038 |
| No on Prop 205 | $0 |
| Total: | $5,609,627 |
Donors for Cannabis Legalization (Initiative 205)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| Marijuana Policy Project | $778,950 |
| Marijuana Policy Project Foundation | $236,572 |
| Arizona Grassroots Dispensary | $135,000 |
| High Mountain Health | $130,000 |
| Monarch | $110,000 |
Donors Against Cannabis Legalization (Initiative 205)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| Discount Tire | $1,000,000 |
| Sheldon Adelson | $500,000 |
| INSYS Therapeutics | $500,000 |
| JoAnne & Ernie Garcia | $250,000 |
| Randy Kendrick | $100,000 |
| Denny T. Sanford | $100,000 |
Arkansas
PACs for Medical Marijuana Legalization
| Committee / PAC | Cumulative Totals |
|---|---|
| Arkansans for Compassionate Care | $162,800.43 |
| Arkansans United For Medical Marijuana | $885,155.38 |
| Total: | $1,047,955.81 |
PACs Against Medical Marijuana Legalization
| Committee / PAC | Cumulative Totals |
|---|---|
| Family Council Action Committee BQC | $11,745.78 |
| Arkansans Against Legalized Marijuana | $48,200 |
| Coalition for Safer Arkansas Communities | $5,774.26 |
| Total: | $65,720.04 |
California
PACs for Cannabis Legalization (Prop. 64)
| PAC | Amount Raised |
|---|---|
| Californians for Responsible Marijuana Reform, Yes on Prop. 64 | $191,202 |
| Californians for Sensible Reform | $850,000 |
| Drug Policy Action, Yes on 64 | $530,000 |
| Fund for Policy Reform | $6,140,000 |
| Marijuana Policy Project of California | $788,992 |
| New Approach PAC | $7,376,000 |
| The Adult Use Campaign for Proposition 64 | $14,032 |
| Yes on 64 | $6,879,122 |
| Total: | $22,769,348 |
PACs Against Cannabis Legalization (Prop. 64)
| PAC | Amount Raised |
|---|---|
| Smart Approaches to Marijuana Action (Sam Action) Against Prop. 64 | $1,364,000 |
| No on Prop. 64 (CA Public Safety Institute) | $1,124,001.16 |
| Moms Strong Against Prop 64 | $4,185.00 |
| Total: | $2,492,186.16 |
Top Donors for Cannabis Legalization (Prop. 64)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| Sean Parker | $8,562,451.21 |
| Drug Policy Action | $4,150,000 |
| Fund for Policy Reform | $3,970,000 |
| Henry Van Ameringen | $1,250,000 |
| Californians for Sensible Reform | $750,000 |
Top Donors Against Cannabis Legalization (Prop. 64)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| Julie Schauer | $1,364,000 |
| Smart Approaches to Marijuana Action (SAM Action) | $489,150 |
| California Teamsters Public Affairs Council | $25,000 |
| Peace Officers Research Association of California | $25,000 |
| CA Association of Highway Patrolmen | $12,500 |
Florida
PACS for Cannabis Legalization in Florida
| PAC | Amount |
|---|---|
| People United for Medical Marijuana | $6,236,461.92 |
PACS Against Cannabis Legalization in Florida
| PAC | Amount |
|---|---|
| Drug Free Florida Committee | $3,474,685.76 |
Top Donors For Medical Marijuana Legalization (Amendment 2)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| The Morgan Firm (John Morgan) | $2,619,021 |
| Drug Policy Action | $1,110,000 |
| Barbara Stiefel | $775,000 |
| Florida Democratic Party | $240,000 |
| John Curtin | $50,000 |
Top Donors Against Medical Marijuana Legalization (Question 2)
| Top Donors | Amount |
|---|---|
| Sheldon Adelson | $1,500,000 |
| Mel Sembler | $1,000,000 |
| Carol Jenkins Barnett Family Trust | $800,000 |
| Levin Papantonio Law Firm | $60,000 |
Maine
PACs for Cannabis Legalization (Question 1)
| PAC | Amount |
|---|---|
| Campaign to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol | $1,285,776.63 |
PACs Against Cannabis Legalization (Question 1)
| PAC | Amount |
|---|---|
| Mainers Protecting Our Youth and Communities | $50,861 |
| Maine Matters Vote No | $8,189 |
| Total: | $59,050 |
Top Donors for Cannabis Legalization (Question 1)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| New Approach PAC | $825,000 |
| Rick Steves | $50,000 |
| Liberty For All | $10,000 |
Top Donors Against Cannabis Legalization (Question 1)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| Alliance for Healthy Marijuana Policy | $50,000 |
| Phil Allen | $1,200 |
Massachusetts
PACS for Cannabis Legalization (Question 4)
| PAC | Amount Raised |
|---|---|
| Yes on 4 | $6,140,429.52 |
PACs Against Cannabis Legalization (Question 4)
| PAC | Amount Raised |
|---|---|
| Campaign for a Safe and Health Massachusetts | $363,202 |
| Smart Approaches to Marijuana Action (SAM Action) | $25,000 |
| Safe Cannabis Massachusets | $300 |
| Total: | $388,502 |
Nevada
PACs for Cannabis Legalization (Question 2)
| PAC | Amount |
|---|---|
| Coalition to Regulate Marijuana Like Alcohol | $1,592,700.00 |
| Regulate Marijuana like Alcohol | $426,000.00 |
| Total: | $2,018,700 |
PACs Against Cannabis Legalization (Question 2)
| PAC | Amount |
|---|---|
| Protecting Nevada's Children | $2,088,500.00 |
| SAM Action Inc. | $30,000 |
| Total: | $2,118,500 |
Top Donors for Cannabis Legalization (Question 2)
| Donor | Amount |
|---|---|
| Marijuana Policy Project | $250,000 |
| AOW REO LLC Capitol Account | $75,000 |
| Ghost Management Group | $50,000 |
| Highland Medical Packaging, LLC | $25,000 |
| Rene Ruiz | $25,000 |
| Gary Primm | $25,000 |
Notable Donors: Some Will Surprise You
| Donor | State | Donation | Legalization Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| U-Haul | Arizona | $25,000 | Oppose |
| Denny Sanford, CEO of United National Corp. | Arizona | $100,000 | Oppose |
| Arizona Wine & Spirits Wholesale Assocation | Arizona | $10,000 | Oppose |
| Jonathan Bush, cousin of Jeb & George W. | Massachusetts | $10,000 | Support |
| Bobby Orr, NHL Hall of Famer | Massachusetts | $1,000 | Oppose |
| Wine & Spirit Wholesalers of Mass. | Massachusetts | $50,000 | Oppose |
| Beer Distributors of Massachusetts | Massachusetts | $25,000 | Oppose |
| Sheldon Adelson, casino magnate | Florida | $1,000,000 | Oppose |
| Gary Primm, casino developer | Nevada | $25,000 | Support |
| Roger Primm, son of Gary | Nevada | $25,000 | Support |
| Sean Parker, Napster founder & early Facebook executive | California | $8,562,451.21 | Support |
| Rick Steves, Writer/TV host | Massachusetts | $100,000 | Support |
| Rick Steves, Writer/TV host | Maine | $100,000 | Support |
Voter Registration Deadlines
Most election coverage focuses on the sprint to November 8. But there’s a hidden campaign going on right now: the race to register voters. In Nevada, more than half a million eligible voters remain unregistered. In Florida, there are 2.75 million. Most states allow voters to register until early to mid October. Remember: You can’t win it if you ain’t in it.
Links to Voter Registration Sites
- Arizona: Service Arizona / ADOT
- Arkansas: Secretary of State
- California: Secretary of State
- Florida: Division of Elections
- Maine: Dept. of the Secretary of State
- Massachusetts: Secretary of the Commonwealth
- Montana: Secretary of State
- Nevada: Secretary of State
- North Dakota: DMV
Election 2016
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